Our Methodology: How We Measured the Trade Gap
To understand the true economic weight of the skilled trades, we conducted a rigorous analysis across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Our goal was to move beyond anecdotes and provide a data-driven look at how workforce shortages impact the American economy.
1. Defining the Scope
We focused our research on seven core essential trades:
- Carpenters & Construction Laborers
- Electricians & HVAC Technicians
- Mechanics, Plumbers, & Welders
2. The Data Foundation
We built our model using three primary data “pillars” to ensure accuracy:
- Employment Levels: Sourced from the University of New Hampshire (UNH), we tracked both “Baseline” jobs (currently filled) and “Gap” jobs (positions that remain unfilled due to retirements and growth demand).
- Wage Information: We used median annual wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We chose median values specifically to represent a “typical” worker’s earnings without being skewed by outliers.
- Verification: All data was cross-referenced with state labor agencies and trade association reports to ensure accuracy.
3. The Economic Engine (IMPLAN)
To calculate how these jobs affect the broader economy, we utilized IMPLAN, the gold standard in economic modeling. This framework allows us to see how a single dollar earned in the trades “ripples” through the economy in three ways:
- Direct Impact: The immediate value created by the tradespeople themselves.
- Indirect Impact: The business-to-business spending (e.g., a plumber buying parts from a supplier).
- Induced Impact: The household spending that happens when these workers spend their paychecks at local businesses.
4. Scenario Modeling
We ran three specific scenarios to visualize the current state vs. the potential future:
- Baseline: The economic contribution of the current workforce.
- The Gap: The “lost” economic activity—GDP, jobs, and taxes—currently being forfeited due to empty positions.
- Full Employment: The total potential GDP if every single trade position in the country were filled.
5. State-Level Precision
While the economy is national, the workforce is local. We didn’t just look at U.S. totals; we allocated results to each state based on its specific share of the national trade workforce. This ensures that our findings for California or Ohio reflect the actual geographic distribution of those workers.
Note on Value Added: Throughout this study, we report impacts in terms of Value Added. This is the most accurate way to measure economic contribution because it isolates the new value created, preventing the “double-counting” of materials and intermediate goods.
